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19,592 mercados abiertos
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?- Meta14%Sí
- Amazon14%Sí
- DeepSeek14%Sí
Tecnología1 ene.
Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by...?- January 3141%Sí
- December 3127%Sí
Tecnología1 feb.
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?46%probabilidad
OpenAI46¢Anthropic54¢
Tecnología1 ene.
Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?- Anthropic92%Sí
- Company C50%Sí
- Company D50%Sí
Tecnología1 nov.
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?- December 31, 202620%Sí
- October 31, 20264%Sí
Tecnología1 ene.
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of November?- Anthropic81%Sí
- Company F50%Sí
- Company A50%Sí
Tecnología1 dic.
Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of November?- Google79%Sí
- Company E50%Sí
- Company M50%Sí
Tecnología1 dic.
Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?3%probabilidad
Sí3¢No97¢
Tecnología1 nov.
Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?6%probabilidad
Sí6¢No94¢
Tecnología1 ene.
What will GPT Sol's output token price hit in 2026?- ↑ $1540%Sí
- ↓ $534%Sí
- ↓ $833%Sí
Tecnología1 ene.
Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?- December 31, 20268%Sí
- October 31, 20263%Sí
Tecnología1 ene.
GitHub Git Operations critical incident by...?25%probabilidad
Sí25¢No75¢
Tecnología1 nov.
Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of October?- Google80%Sí
- Company B50%Sí
- Company E50%Sí
Tecnología31 oct.
5kt meteor strike in 2026?11%probabilidad
Sí11¢No89¢
Tecnología1 mar.
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?5%probabilidad
Sí5¢No95¢
Tecnología1 ene.
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?2%probabilidad
Sí2¢No98¢
Tecnología1 ene.
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?- <546%Sí
- 5-635%Sí
- 7-81%Sí
Tecnología1 ene.
Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?- 156048%Sí
- 158019%Sí
- 16006%Sí
Tecnología1 ene.
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?7%probabilidad
Sí7¢No93¢
Tecnología1 mar.
Anthropic lab leak by...?- June 30, 20277%Sí
- December 31, 20262%Sí
Tecnología1 jul.
Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?- 60%+19%Sí
- 65%+7%Sí
- 70%+4%Sí
Tecnología1 ene.
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?7%probabilidad
Sí7¢No93¢
Tecnología1 ene.
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?14%probabilidad
Sí14¢No86¢
Tecnología1 ene.
Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___?- December 31, 202711%Sí
- December 31, 20262%Sí
Tecnología1 ene.